EFL Championship, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Stoke City — Bristol City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Stoke City 35%, Bristol City 35%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bristol City are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Stoke City — No. 7, 16 pts; Bristol City — No. 12, 14 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Stoke City 2 wins, Bristol City 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Stoke City — Bristol City What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 65% | |
| Bristol City not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Stoke City
- Stoke City goals
- Bristol City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 13.10Middlesbrough2:3
- 10.10away · Bolton Wanderers2:1
- 19.09Sheffield United2:1
- 12.09away · Watford2:1
- 08.09away · Cardiff City1:1
- 13.10Blackburn Rovers0:1
- 10.10away · Charlton Athletic1:1
- 18.09Watford1:0
- 15.09Lincoln City0:1
- 12.09away · Southampton1:4
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Bristol City — Stoke City2:0
- 01.11.2025Stoke City — Bristol City5:1
- 12.02.2025Bristol City — Stoke City2:0
- 22.10.2024Stoke City — Bristol City2:2
- 04.05.2024Stoke City — Bristol City4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- Charlton AthleticNorwich Citypreliminary2528462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- PortsmouthMillwallpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Sheffield UnitedDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Blackburn RoversWrexhampreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
- Cardiff CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3628351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- Lincoln CityBurnleypreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary343037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Queens Park RangersSwansea Citypreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →