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Serie B, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadio Marco Druso

Südtirol — Ascoli

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Südtirol41%
Draw30%
Ascoli29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Südtirol to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.

Südtirol are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Südtirol — Ascoli What is xG?1.3–1.1
Südtirol not to lose71%
Ascoli not to lose59%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Südtirol
  • Südtirol goals
  • Ascoli goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Südtirol

  • 20.09away · Arezzo4:1
  • 15.09away · Genoa0:1
  • 12.09Modena1:1
  • 05.09Catanzaro2:0
  • 30.08away · Benevento1:1

Ascoli

  • 19.09Avellino3:1
  • 12.09away · Padova0:1
  • 05.09Benevento1:0
  • 29.08Carrarese1:1
  • 23.08away · Hellas Verona2:1

Head to head

  • 04.02.2024Ascoli — Südtirol1:2
  • 02.09.2023Südtirol — Ascoli3:1
  • 15.04.2023Ascoli — Südtirol1:0
  • 27.11.2022Südtirol — Ascoli2:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Promotion play-offsModena641111–6+513
4, Promotion play-offsSüdtirol63309–3+612
5, Promotion play-offsAscoli63217–4+311
6, Promotion play-offsAvellino631211–7+410

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • AscoliEmpoli17 October · Serie B
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
  • Juve StabiaSüdtirol18 October · Serie B
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1

Serie B on the same day

  • BeneventoCesena
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.6
  • EmpoliPalermo
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
  • Virtus EntellaJuve Stabia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
  • LR VicenzaPisa
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
  • ArezzoCremonese
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →