Serie B, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, 16:00 MSK · Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena

Empoli — Palermo

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:4Came true

Empoli30%

Draw29%

Palermo41%

Model estimate at 15:53 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Palermo to win (41%), came true.

Palermo are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Empoli — Palermo What is xG?		1.2–1.4
Empoli not to lose		59%
Palermo not to lose		70%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Empoli
Empoli goals
Palermo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Empoli

20.09away · Modena1:2
11.09Arezzo0:1
05.09away · Carrarese1:0
30.08away · Mantova1:3
22.08Cremonese1:0

Palermo

19.09Padova2:1
13.09away · Avellino1:1
07.09Sampdoria3:1
03.09Mantova5:2
30.08away · Arezzo3:2

Head to head

07.02.2026Palermo — Empoli3:2
07.12.2025Empoli — Palermo1:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14–7	+7	16
2, Promotion	Mantova	6	4	2	0	13–6	+7	14
15	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	5–8	-3	6
16, Relegation play-off	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6–10	-4	6
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	6	1	2	3	7–13	-6	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

16:00
AscoliEmpoli17 October · Serie B
462924
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
18:15
MantovaPalermo17 October · Serie B
342937
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

Serie B on the same day

16:00
BeneventoCesena
383032
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.2.6
16:00
Virtus EntellaJuve Stabia
463024
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
16:00
SüdtirolAscoli
413029
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
18:15
LR VicenzaPisa
272746
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
20:30
ArezzoCremonese
282944
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →