Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Tondela — Alverca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Alverca are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alverca are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tondela — Alverca What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Tondela not to lose | 52% | |
| Alverca not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tondela
- Tondela goals
- Alverca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Imortal5:1
- 16.05away · Arouca1:3
- 11.05Moreirense2:0
- 03.05away · Casa Pia AC1:0
- 29.04away · Sporting CP2:2
- 12.10away · Famalicão4:1
- 19.09Rio Ave1:0
- 12.09away · Nacional3:1
- 05.09Braga1:2
- 29.08Santa Clara1:1
Head to head
- 13.02.2026Tondela — Alverca1:1
- 12.09.2025Alverca — Tondela1:0
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1219702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- 4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 714792The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →