Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK

Fátima — Académico Viseu

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Model prediction for 18 October

Fátima9%
Draw16%
Académico Viseu75%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Académico Viseu are clear favourites: 75% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Académico Viseu are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • Académico Viseu: 4 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fátima — Académico Viseu What is xG?0.8–2.5
Fátima not to lose25%
Académico Viseu not to lose91%
No draw84%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.563%
Total under 2.537%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Fátima
  • Fátima goals
  • Académico Viseu goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Fátima

  • 20.09Vinhais4:1
  • 20.09away · Caldas0:3
  • 22.09Sanjoanense0:0

Académico Viseu

  • 10.10Estoril2:1
  • 20.09away · Estrela da Amadora2:0
  • 12.09Vitória de Guimarães2:1
  • 06.09away · Gil Vicente1:0
  • 29.08FC Porto0:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Taca de Portugal on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →