Taca de Portugal (Portuguese Cup), round 3 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Alpendorada — Casa Pia AC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Casa Pia AC are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Casa Pia AC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alpendorada — Casa Pia AC What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Alpendorada not to lose | 50% | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alpendorada
- Alpendorada goals
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09Mação3:0
- 22.11Casa Pia AC0:3
- 18.10Estrela da Amadora3:1
- 21.09Estrela Calheta7:1
- 20.10Cinfães1:2
- 10.10Santa Clara0:1
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
- 12.09FC Porto1:4
- 06.09away · Vitória de Guimarães0:0
- 30.08Moreirense0:1
Head to head
- 22.11.2025Alpendorada — Casa Pia AC0:3
Taca de Portugal on the same day
- 1219702The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 916752The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.9
- 4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 714792The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
- 3527382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →