EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Watford — Charlton Athletic
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Watford are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Watford are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Watford — No. 22, 8 pts; Charlton Athletic — No. 13, 14 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Watford: 4 defeats in a row; Charlton Athletic: winless in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Watford 0 wins, Charlton Athletic 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Watford — Charlton Athletic What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Watford not to lose | 72% | |
| Charlton Athletic not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Watford
- Watford goals
- Charlton Athletic goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 13.10away · Cardiff City1:5
- 10.10Burnley0:4
- 18.09away · Bristol City0:1
- 12.09Stoke City1:2
- 08.09Preston North End2:1
- 13.10away · Burnley2:2
- 10.10Bristol City1:1
- 19.09away · Cardiff City1:3
- 12.09Portsmouth0:0
- 09.09Queens Park Rangers0:0
Head to head
- 06.04.2026Watford — Charlton Athletic1:1
- 09.08.2025Charlton Athletic — Watford1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Championship on the same day
- 6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- 4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- 4728241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- 5426191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- 3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →