J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Yokohama F.Marinos — Tokyo Verdy
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Yokohama F.Marinos are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Yokohama F.Marinos are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Yokohama F.Marinos — No. 7, 15 pts; Tokyo Verdy — No. 20, 4 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Yokohama F.Marinos: unbeaten in 5; Tokyo Verdy: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Yokohama F.Marinos 2 wins, Tokyo Verdy 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Yokohama F.Marinos — Tokyo Verdy What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| Yokohama F.Marinos not to lose | 79% | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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Form
- 10.10away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 19.09Mito Hollyhock2:0
- 12.09away · Machida Zelvia1:1
- 06.09away · Kashiwa Reysol2:0
- 02.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
- 11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Tokyo Verdy — Yokohama F.Marinos0:6
- 28.02.2026Yokohama F.Marinos — Tokyo Verdy3:2
- 09.08.2025Tokyo Verdy — Yokohama F.Marinos1:0
- 05.04.2025Yokohama F.Marinos — Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 29.06.2024Yokohama F.Marinos — Tokyo Verdy1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5527191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →