AHL (American Hockey League): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 1090 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 1090 matches 10,000 times. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton have the best chance to win the regular season: 15%, Grand Rapids Griffins 11%.
Race for first place
| Date | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | Grand Rapids Griffins | Coachella Valley Firebirds | Colorado Eagles | Laval Rocket | Milwaukee Admirals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 October | 4% | 12% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 3% |
| 12 October | 16% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 9% | 7% |
| 13 October | 15% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 6% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
Chance of every place
Show the 32 × 32 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 15 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Grand Rapids Griffins | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Laval Rocket | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Coachella Valley Firebirds | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Manitoba Moose | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Colorado Eagles | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Utica Comets | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Milwaukee Admirals | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Rochester Americans | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Hershey Bears | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Toronto Marlies | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ontario Reign | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Providence Bruins | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Charlotte Checkers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Tucson Roadrunners | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Henderson Silver Knights | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| San Diego Gulls | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Bakersfield Condors | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Cleveland Monsters | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Springfield Thunderbirds | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Calgary Wranglers | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Iowa Wild | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Hartford Wolf Pack | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Texas Stars | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Syracuse Crunch | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | ||
| Abbotsford Canucks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Belleville Senators | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | ||
| Rockford IceHogs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | |
| San Jose Barracuda | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | |
| Hamilton Hammers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | |||
| Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | |||
| Chicago Wolves | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 20 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.