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Upsets of the week

12 October – 18 October · so far

An upset here is a win the model rated at 30% or less before kick-off. This week: 19 of 142 matches. The model itself expected about 13.2 — upsets are part of the probabilities, not a failure of them. Covered: the leagues and cups of Europe, Africa, North America, Asia and Australia, national teams and tennis. Why favourites lose →

Football

  1. 12 October · Greek Super League

    PAOK Thessaloniki1:3Kalamata

    6%for the winner82%favourite — PAOK Thessaloniki

  2. 13 October · Championship

    Wolverhampton Wanderers1:3Bolton Wanderers

    15%for the winner63%favourite — Wolverhampton Wanderers

  3. 13 October · Champions League

    Inter3:4Club Brugge

    17%for the winner62%favourite — Inter

  4. 12 October · Premier League

    Coventry City4:1Newcastle United

    22%for the winner50%favourite — Newcastle United

  5. 13 October · Championship

    Millwall0:1Swansea City

    24%for the winner49%favourite — Millwall

  6. 12 October · Primeira Liga

    Famalicão1:4Alverca

    25%for the winner46%favourite — Famalicão

  7. 13 October · Egyptian Premier League

    Abo Qir Semad1:2Asyut Petroleum

    25%for the winner40%favourite — Abo Qir Semad

  8. 13 October · SA Premiership

    Durban City1:2AmaZulu FC

    25%for the winner43%favourite — Durban City

  9. 12 October · Segunda Division

    Burgos CF0:1Granada

    26%for the winner44%favourite — Burgos CF

  10. 13 October · Championship

    Wrexham1:2West Bromwich Albion

    27%for the winner43%favourite — Wrexham

  11. 12 October · Ligue 2

    Dijon4:2Metz

    28%for the winner46%favourite — Metz

  12. 12 October · Ekstraklasa

    Radomiak Radom2:3Motor Lublin

    29%for the winner42%favourite — Radomiak Radom

  13. 13 October · Championship

    Bristol City0:1Blackburn Rovers

    30%for the winner41%favourite — Bristol City

Tennis

  1. 12 October · ATP

    Bergs Z.2:0Alcaraz C.

    10%for the winner90%favourite — Alcaraz C.

  2. 13 October · WTA

    Guo H.2:1Cirstea S.

    17%for the winner83%favourite — Cirstea S.

  3. 12 October · WTA

    Alexandrova E.1:2Fernandez L.

    21%for the winner79%favourite — Alexandrova E.

  4. 12 October · ATP

    Fils A.0:2Van De Zandschulp B.

    28%for the winner72%favourite — Fils A.

  5. 14 October · WTA

    Ostapenko J.2:1Pegula J.

    28%for the winner72%favourite — Pegula J.

  6. 12 October · WTA

    Eala A.1:2Shi H.

    29%for the winner71%favourite — Eala A.

Where an upset is most likely

Coming week: matches with a clear favourite where the underdog still has the biggest chance.

Previous weeks