Czech Extraliga (hockey): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 295 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 295 matches 10,000 times. Trinec have the best chance to win the regular season: 60%, Pardubice 24%.
Race for first place
| Date | Trinec | Pardubice | Sparta Prague | Karlovy Vary | Kladno | Liberec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 September | 19% | 22% | 17% | 3% | 9% | 7% |
| 28 September | 41% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 5 October | 57% | 24% | 2% | 11% | 1% | 1% |
| 12 October | 61% | 24% | 2% | 6% | <1% | 2% |
| 13 October | 60% | 24% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 3% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Incl. play-in” counts “Straight to QF” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Straight to QF | Incl. play-in | Play-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trinec | 28 (10) | 119 | 14 | 60%▲3 | 95%▲1 | >99% | — |
| 2 | Pardubice | 26 (11) | 108 | 13 | 24% | 85%▲2 | >99% | — |
| 3 | Karlovy Vary | 18 (9) | 95 | 12 | 6%▼5 | 58%▼11 | >99% | <1% |
| 4 | Plzen | 16 (10) | 88 | 11 | 2%▲1 | 37%▲12 | 99%▲2 | <1%▼1 |
| 5 | Liberec | 14 (10) | 85 | 10 | 3%▲2 | 33%▲10 | 99%▲3 | <1%▼1 |
| 6 | Sparta Prague | 14 (10) | 84 | 7 | 2% | 30%▲2 | 98%▲1 | 1% |
| 7 | Mountfield HK | 16 (10) | 82 | 9 | 1% | 24%▼4 | 98% | 1% |
| 8 | Kladno | 15 (10) | 74 | 6 | 1% | 12%▼3 | 93%▲1 | 2%▼1 |
| 9 | Ceske Budejovice | 16 (10) | 73 | 5 | <1% | 11%▲4 | 93%▲9 | 2%▼4 |
| 10 | Kometa Brno | 11 (9) | 71 | 8 | <1%▼1 | 10%▼9 | 90%▼2 | 3% |
| 11 | Litvinov | 12 (10) | 61 | 2 | <1% | 3%▼1 | 79%▲1 | 8%▼1 |
| 12 | Vitkovice | 7 (9) | 56 | 4 | <1% | 2%▼2 | 65%▼7 | 16%▲3 |
| 13 | Mlada Boleslav | 9 (10) | 53 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 57%▲7 | 20%▼8 |
| 14 | Olomouc | 5 (10) | 43 | 1 | — | <1%▼1 | 30%▼14 | 47%▲13 |
Chance of every place
Show the 14 × 14 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinec | 60 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Pardubice | 24 | 32 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Karlovy Vary | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Plzen | 2 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liberec | 3 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sparta Prague | 2 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mountfield HK | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Kladno | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Ceske Budejovice | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Kometa Brno | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |
| Litvinov | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 8 | ||
| Vitkovice | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 16 | ||
| Mlada Boleslav | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 23 | 20 | ||||
| Olomouc | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 47 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Czech Extraliga: matches and table →
Czech Extraliga: power rankings →