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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Aktobe Sports Palace

Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Aktobe31%
Draw in regulation21%
Beibarys Atyrau48%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Beibarys Atyrau to win (60% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.

Beibarys Atyrau are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Beibarys Atyrau are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.5.
  • Aktobe: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau2.5–3.0
Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Aktobe
  • Aktobe goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Aktobe

  • 12.10Beibarys Atyrau2:1
  • 08.10away · Pavlodar6:0
  • 07.10away · Pavlodar5:2
  • 03.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:7
  • 02.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:3

Beibarys Atyrau

  • 12.10away · Aktobe1:2
  • 07.10Almaty5:3
  • 06.10Almaty1:4
  • 02.10Torpedo2:9
  • 01.10Torpedo3:4

Head to head

  • 12.10.2026Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau2:1
  • 26.01.2026Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau5:6 OT
  • 25.01.2026Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau3:6
  • 01.12.2025Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau4:7
  • 30.11.2025Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau2:6

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389
9Beibarys Atyrau18321338–59-218
10Pavlodar18011719–140-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • AktobeNomad Astana16 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The model's most likely outcome: 212%Model's score: 2:56.3
  • Beibarys AtyrauKulager16 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →