Swiss National League (hockey) · Sunday, 25 October, 16:00 MSK

Bern — Lugano

Model prediction for 25 October

Bern44%

Draw in regulation22%

Lugano34%

Model estimate at 17:13 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bern are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

Bern are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bern — Lugano		2.6–2.3
Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout)		56%
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		44%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Bern
Bern goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Bern

10.10away · Ambri-Piotta2:1 OT
09.10Biel4:2
03.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
02.10Servette2:3 SO
29.09away · Fribourg2:5

Lugano

10.10away · Biel3:2
09.10Zurich2:3 OT
07.10away · Lausanne5:2
04.10away · Ajoie4:5
02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2

Head to head

16.01.2026Bern — Lugano1:4
07.12.2025Lugano — Bern3:1
24.10.2025Bern — Lugano1:4
23.09.2025Lugano — Bern0:3
14.02.2025Lugano — Bern1:3

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

16:00
ServetteZurichpreliminary
4654
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →