NHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres — Chicago Blackhawks
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4:3Came true
In short
Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Buffalo Sabres to win (73% incl. overtime), came true.
Buffalo Sabres are clear favourites: 73% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- Buffalo Sabres are more dangerous in attack: 3.7 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Buffalo Sabres 5 wins, Chicago Blackhawks 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buffalo Sabres — Chicago Blackhawks | 3.7–2.4 | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 73% | |
| Chicago Blackhawks to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 27% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10away · Columbus Blue Jackets3:6
- 19.05Montreal Canadiens2:3 OT
- 17.05away · Montreal Canadiens8:3
- 15.05Montreal Canadiens3:6
- 13.05away · Montreal Canadiens3:2
- 02.10away · Utah Mammoth0:6
- 30.09away · Vegas Golden Knights2:5
- 16.04San Jose Sharks5:2
- 14.04Buffalo Sabres1:5
- 12.04St. Louis Blues3:5
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Chicago Blackhawks — Buffalo Sabres1:5
- 22.11.2025Buffalo Sabres — Chicago Blackhawks9:3
- 28.12.2024Buffalo Sabres — Chicago Blackhawks6:2
- 20.10.2024Chicago Blackhawks — Buffalo Sabres2:4
- 19.01.2024Buffalo Sabres — Chicago Blackhawks3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 6 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 28 | Vancouver Canucks | 8 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 29 | Chicago Blackhawks | 7 | 2 | -12 | 4 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Flyers | 8 | 0 | -21 | 3 |
Next matches
- Buffalo SabresMinnesota Wild7 October · NHL51491The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
- Chicago BlackhawksSt. Louis Blues7 October · NHL41592The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.2
NHL on the same day
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.9
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.6
- 53471The most likely outcome came true: 122%6:5OTFinal score 6:5 in overtime. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →