Swiss National League (hockey) · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Lugano — Lausanne
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.
Why
- Lugano are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — Lausanne | 2.7–2.4 | |
| Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| Lausanne to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 46% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Lugano
- Lugano goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Biel3:2
- 09.10Zurich2:3 OT
- 07.10away · Lausanne5:2
- 04.10away · Ajoie4:5
- 02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2
- 10.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:1
- 07.10Lugano2:5
- 03.10away · Zurich2:3 OT
- 02.10Biel7:4
- 30.09Servette6:5 SO
Head to head
- 07.10.2026Lausanne — Lugano2:5
- 28.02.2026Lugano — Lausanne1:4
- 07.01.2026Lausanne — Lugano2:5
- 18.10.2025Lausanne — Lugano1:5
- 26.09.2025Lugano — Lausanne4:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 11 | 2 | -3 | 16 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Lugano | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lausanne | 11 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Ambri-Piotta | 10 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →