KHL · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · VOLGA Arena
Nizhny Novgorod — Cherepovets
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Nizhny Novgorod to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Nizhny Novgorod are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.
Why
- Nizhny Novgorod are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- Nizhny Novgorod: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Nizhny Novgorod 4 wins, Cherepovets 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nizhny Novgorod — Cherepovets | 2.8–2.4 | |
| Nizhny Novgorod to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 46% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Nizhny Novgorod
- Nizhny Novgorod goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 05.10away · Dinamo Minsk2:1 SO
- 03.10away · Sochi6:0
- 01.10away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
- 28.09Salavat Ufa0:3
- 24.09Sochi3:0
- 06.10away · SKA St. Petersburg5:2
- 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
- 01.10Vladivostok3:4 SO
- 26.09Sochi3:1
- 24.09Yekaterinburg5:2
Head to head
- 31.03.2026Cherepovets — Nizhny Novgorod3:4
- 29.03.2026Nizhny Novgorod — Cherepovets3:2 OT
- 27.03.2026Nizhny Novgorod — Cherepovets3:1
- 25.03.2026Cherepovets — Nizhny Novgorod4:0
- 23.03.2026Cherepovets — Nizhny Novgorod1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
Next matches
- Bars KazanCherepovets10 October · KHL60401The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
- Nizhny NovgorodMagnitogorsk12 October · KHL39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
KHL on the same day
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.6
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 222%0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →