KHL · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Neftekhimik Arena
Niznekamsk — Avangard Omsk
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Avangard Omsk to win (60% incl. overtime), came true.
Avangard Omsk are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.
Why
- Avangard Omsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Niznekamsk 1 win, Avangard Omsk 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Niznekamsk — Avangard Omsk | 2.2–2.6 | |
| Niznekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 40% | |
| Avangard Omsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 60% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 40% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 60% |
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- Totals incl. OT
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- Niznekamsk goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 04.10Novosibirsk3:2
- 02.10Barys Astana4:5 OT
- 29.09away · Khabarovsk0:1
- 27.09away · Vladivostok5:3
- 26.09away · Barys Astana6:3
- 06.10away · Yekaterinburg0:4
- 02.10Lada4:1
- 28.09Magnitogorsk1:5
- 24.09away · Spartak Moscow2:1 OT
- 22.09away · Nizhny Novgorod1:5
Head to head
- 01.04.2026Avangard Omsk — Niznekamsk4:3 OT
- 30.03.2026Niznekamsk — Avangard Omsk2:5
- 28.03.2026Niznekamsk — Avangard Omsk1:2
- 26.03.2026Avangard Omsk — Niznekamsk3:4 OT
- 24.03.2026Avangard Omsk — Niznekamsk4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Niznekamsk | 15 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 12 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 18 | Novosibirsk | 15 | 5 | -12 | 13 |
| 19 | Avangard Omsk | 13 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 13 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
Next matches
- Barys AstanaAvangard Omsk10 October · KHL35652The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0
- Salavat UfaNiznekamsk12 October · KHL60401The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
KHL on the same day
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.6
- 57431The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →