NHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators — St. Louis Blues
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:7Came true
In short
Final score 2:7: the model's most likely outcome, St. Louis Blues to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.
Close to a coin flip: Ottawa Senators 48%, St. Louis Blues 52% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.9.
- Ottawa Senators: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Ottawa Senators: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Ottawa Senators 1 win, St. Louis Blues 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ottawa Senators — St. Louis Blues | 2.7–2.9 | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| St. Louis Blues to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ottawa Senators
- Ottawa Senators goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · New Jersey Devils4:1
- 11.10Nashville Predators3:2 SO
- 09.10Philadelphia Flyers2:1
- 07.10away · Detroit Red Wings3:5
- 06.10away · Boston Bruins4:1
- 11.10Columbus Blue Jackets5:3
- 09.10San Jose Sharks2:3 OT
- 07.10away · Chicago Blackhawks2:4
- 04.10away · Colorado Avalanche1:6
- 03.10away · Dallas Stars4:0
Head to head
- 07.12.2025Ottawa Senators — St. Louis Blues1:2
- 29.11.2025St. Louis Blues — Ottawa Senators4:3
- 04.01.2025St. Louis Blues — Ottawa Senators4:0
- 30.10.2024Ottawa Senators — St. Louis Blues8:1
- 22.03.2024Ottawa Senators — St. Louis Blues2:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Utah Mammoth | 7 | 5 | +8 | 10 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
Next matches
- Ottawa SenatorsNew York Islanders16 October · NHL57431The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Minnesota WildSt. Louis Blues16 October · NHL55451The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.3
NHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%3:7Final score 3:7. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 56441The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.6
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 124%2:3SOFinal score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
- 46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.6
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%5:3Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:5.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →