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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Ryazan — Magnitka Magnitogorsk

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Model prediction and result

4:3 SOMissed
Ryazan33%
Draw in regulation24%
Magnitka Magnitogorsk43%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Magnitka Magnitogorsk to win (56% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Magnitka Magnitogorsk are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 24%.

Why

  • Magnitka Magnitogorsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.1 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • Ryazan: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 4 meetings: Ryazan 3 wins, Magnitka Magnitogorsk 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ryazan — Magnitka Magnitogorsk1.8–2.1
Ryazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
Magnitka Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)24%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)76%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ryazan
  • Ryazan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ryazan

  • 08.10Orsk2:3 OT
  • 03.10away · Perm0:1
  • 01.10away · Toros Neftekamsk0:3
  • 29.09away · Izhevsk2:3 SO
  • 27.09away · Olympia1:4

Magnitka Magnitogorsk

  • 02.10Bars4:2
  • 30.09Almetyevsk1:2 OT
  • 28.09CSK VVS3:0
  • 22.09away · Khimik1:0
  • 20.09away · Zvezda Moscow2:4

Head to head

  • 02.03.2026Magnitka Magnitogorsk — Ryazan2:3 SO
  • 16.09.2025Ryazan — Magnitka Magnitogorsk2:4
  • 13.01.2025Ryazan — Magnitka Magnitogorsk1:0 SO
  • 10.11.2024Magnitka Magnitogorsk — Ryazan1:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
15, PlayoffsKristall Saratov1271431–41-1015
16, PlayoffsMagnitka Magnitogorsk1154224–20+414
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • RyazanChelmet Chelyabinsk12 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 8:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • AKMMagnitka Magnitogorsk12 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.5

VHL on the same day

  • HC NorilskToros Neftekamsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 5:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • CSK VVSDinamo St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
  • AKMOrsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • BarsKhimik
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
  • AlmetyevskZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 3:1.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →