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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

HC Norilsk — Toros Neftekamsk

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Model prediction and result

5:3Came true
HC Norilsk39%
Draw in regulation23%
Toros Neftekamsk38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:3: the model's most likely outcome, HC Norilsk to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: HC Norilsk 50%, Toros Neftekamsk 50% including overtime.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — Toros Neftekamsk2.3–2.2
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Toros Neftekamsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO
  • 29.09away · Dizel0:5
  • 27.09away · Tambov1:4

Toros Neftekamsk

  • 05.10Kaluga0:1
  • 03.10AKM0:3
  • 01.10Ryazan3:0
  • 23.09away · Bars3:1
  • 21.09away · Almetyevsk4:3

Head to head

  • 24.01.2026Toros Neftekamsk — HC Norilsk5:2
  • 27.10.2025HC Norilsk — Toros Neftekamsk1:2 OT
  • 18.01.2025Toros Neftekamsk — HC Norilsk0:2
  • 03.11.2024HC Norilsk — Toros Neftekamsk3:2
  • 02.02.2024HC Norilsk — Toros Neftekamsk3:4 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
16, PlayoffsMagnitka Magnitogorsk1154224–20+414
17Toros Neftekamsk1362530–31-114
18Ryazan1554630–32-214

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • HC NorilskPerm12 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:2.4.5
  • KrasnoyarskToros Neftekamsk13 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.4

VHL on the same day

  • CSK VVSDinamo St. Petersburg
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
  • AKMOrsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • BarsKhimik
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
  • AlmetyevskZvezda Moscow
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%Final score 3:5. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
  • RyazanMagnitka Magnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 1:2.3.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →