NHL · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Vegas Golden Knights — Tampa Bay Lightning
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Vegas Golden Knights 52%, Tampa Bay Lightning 48% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.6.
Facts
- League table: Vegas Golden Knights — No. 3, 12 pts; Tampa Bay Lightning — No. 13, 8 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Vegas Golden Knights 1 win, Tampa Bay Lightning 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vegas Golden Knights — Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.7–2.6 | |
| Vegas Golden Knights to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 52% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 48% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 51% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Vegas Golden Knights
- Vegas Golden Knights goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Nashville Predators5:2
- 13.10away · Minnesota Wild2:4
- 11.10Los Angeles Kings2:1 OT
- 09.10Toronto Maple Leafs4:3 SO
- 07.10away · Seattle Kraken6:2
- 14.10away · New York Rangers1:4
- 11.10away · New York Islanders5:3
- 09.10Minnesota Wild3:2
- 06.10Philadelphia Flyers4:1
- 04.10Washington Capitals3:1
Head to head
- 07.11.2025Vegas Golden Knights — Tampa Bay Lightning3:6
- 27.10.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — Vegas Golden Knights2:1 OT
- 24.03.2025Vegas Golden Knights — Tampa Bay Lightning4:2
- 18.10.2024Tampa Bay Lightning — Vegas Golden Knights4:3
- 20.03.2024Vegas Golden Knights — Tampa Bay Lightning3:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 6 | 5 | +11 | 11 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
NHL on the same day
- Columbus Blue JacketsToronto Maple Leafspreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 5:26.4
- Montreal CanadiensSan Jose Sharkspreliminary71291The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 5:26.1
- New Jersey DevilsColorado Avalanchepreliminary41592The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:55.9
- New York IslandersAnaheim Duckspreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.0
- Washington CapitalsLos Angeles Kingspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.1
- Dallas StarsBoston Bruinspreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- St. Louis BluesWinnipeg Jetspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.2
- Edmonton OilersMinnesota Wildpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →