NHL · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK

St. Louis Blues — Winnipeg Jets

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Model prediction for 21 October

St. Louis Blues40%
Draw in regulation24%
Winnipeg Jets36%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: St. Louis Blues 53%, Winnipeg Jets 47% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 5.2 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 48%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: St. Louis Blues — Winnipeg Jets2.6–2.5
St. Louis Blues to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Winnipeg Jets to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)48%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)52%

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Form

St. Louis Blues

  • 11.10Columbus Blue Jackets5:3
  • 09.10San Jose Sharks2:3 OT
  • 07.10away · Chicago Blackhawks2:4
  • 04.10away · Colorado Avalanche1:6
  • 03.10away · Dallas Stars4:0

Winnipeg Jets

  • 10.10Anaheim Ducks1:5
  • 08.10Colorado Avalanche3:2
  • 06.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins3:2
  • 04.10away · Detroit Red Wings3:2
  • 03.10Boston Bruins3:4 OT

Head to head

  • 10.04.2026St. Louis Blues — Winnipeg Jets2:3
  • 15.03.2026Winnipeg Jets — St. Louis Blues3:2
  • 21.01.2026Winnipeg Jets — St. Louis Blues3:1
  • 18.12.2025St. Louis Blues — Winnipeg Jets1:0
  • 05.05.2025Winnipeg Jets — St. Louis Blues4:3 OT

Full record: 30 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conferenceToronto Maple Leafs631220–18+27
14, Playoffs: top 3 in each divisionWinnipeg Jets531113–15-27
15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conferenceColorado Avalanche530226–17+96
21Dallas Stars521211–8+35
22St. Louis Blues521214–16-25
23Montreal Canadiens521215–19-45

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

NHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →