NHL: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 1255 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 1255 matches 10,000 times. Minnesota Wild have the best chance to win the regular season: 13%, Colorado Avalanche 11%.
Race for first place
| Date | Colorado Avalanche | Minnesota Wild | Pittsburgh Penguins | Tampa Bay Lightning | Carolina Hurricanes | New York Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 October | 22% | 9% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| 12 October | 11% | 11% | 3% | 8% | 8% | 6% |
| 13 October | 11% | 13% | 3% | 9% | 7% | 7% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota Wild | 9 (6) | 115 | 32 | 13%▲4 | 89%▲8 |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 6 (5) | 110 | 22 | 11%▼11 | 80%▼11 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 8 (5) | 110 | 20 | 9%▲6 | 80%▲20 |
| 4 | Carolina Hurricanes | 11 (7) | 110 | 5 | 7%▲5 | 81%▲26 |
| 5 | New York Rangers | 10 (7) | 109 | 21 | 7%▲4 | 81%▲9 |
| 6 | Ottawa Senators | 10 (6) | 107 | 12 | 6%▼1 | 77%▲13 |
| 7 | Boston Bruins | 8 (6) | 106 | 18 | 5%▲3 | 75%▲16 |
| 8 | Washington Capitals | 6 (5) | 104 | 25 | 6%▲2 | 72%▲9 |
| 9 | Utah Mammoth | 8 (6) | 104 | 24 | 5%▼1 | 73%▼7 |
| 10 | Edmonton Oilers | 9 (5) | 103 | 27 | 6%▲3 | 75%▲11 |
| 11 | Dallas Stars | 5 (5) | 103 | 23 | 4%▲3 | 72%▲36 |
| 12 | Vegas Golden Knights | 10 (7) | 102 | 31 | 3% | 77%▲8 |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 (6) | 99 | 15 | 3%▼7 | 64%▼12 |
| 14 | Seattle Kraken | 8 (6) | 98 | 30 | 3%▲1 | 68%▲1 |
| 15 | Nashville Predators | 6 (5) | 96 | 26 | 2%▲1 | 59%▲22 |
| 16 | Anaheim Ducks | 8 (5) | 94 | 29 | 2% | 60%▲5 |
| 17 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 (6) | 91 | 14 | 1%▲1 | 47%▲20 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 5 (5) | 89 | 10 | 1%▼5 | 42%▼26 |
| 19 | Winnipeg Jets | 7 (5) | 89 | 17 | 1% | 43%▼2 |
| 20 | New York Islanders | 4 (5) | 88 | 7 | 1%▼1 | 41%▼13 |
| 21 | St. Louis Blues | 5 (5) | 88 | 13 | 1%▼2 | 41%▼17 |
| 22 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 4 (4) | 87 | 9 | 1%▼1 | 39%▼8 |
| 23 | Buffalo Sabres | 6 (6) | 84 | 2 | 1%▼2 | 33%▼18 |
| 24 | Florida Panthers | 6 (6) | 83 | 6 | <1%▼1 | 29%▼19 |
| 25 | Detroit Red Wings | 3 (5) | 79 | 3 | <1% | 24% |
| 26 | Los Angeles Kings | 2 (4) | 78 | 28 | <1%▼1 | 29%▼13 |
| 27 | San Jose Sharks | 6 (5) | 71 | 19 | <1%▼1 | 19%▼16 |
| 28 | New Jersey Devils | 4 (5) | 65 | 1 | <1% | 9%▼6 |
| 29 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 (7) | 61 | 8 | <1% | 4%▼15 |
| 30 | Vancouver Canucks | 4 (7) | 60 | 16 | — | 8%▼15 |
| 31 | Chicago Blackhawks | 2 (6) | 58 | 4 | <1% | 4%▼7 |
| 32 | Calgary Flames | 0 (5) | 48 | 11 | — | 2%▼4 |
Chance of every place
Show the 32 × 32 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 13 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Colorado Avalanche | 11 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Carolina Hurricanes | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| New York Rangers | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Ottawa Senators | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Boston Bruins | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Washington Capitals | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Utah Mammoth | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Edmonton Oilers | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Dallas Stars | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Vegas Golden Knights | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seattle Kraken | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nashville Predators | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Anaheim Ducks | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| New York Islanders | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| St. Louis Blues | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Florida Panthers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Detroit Red Wings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Los Angeles Kings | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |||
| San Jose Sharks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |||||
| New Jersey Devils | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | ||||||||
| Philadelphia Flyers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| Vancouver Canucks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 13 | |||||||||||
| Chicago Blackhawks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | |||||||||||||
| Calgary Flames | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 33 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.