2. Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Max-Morlock-Stadion
1. FC Nürnberg — Wolfsburg
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In short
Final score 4:4: the model's most likely outcome, Wolfsburg to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: 1. FC Nürnberg 36%, Wolfsburg 37%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 73%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg — Wolfsburg What is xG? | 1.8–1.8 | |
| 1. FC Nürnberg not to lose | 63% | |
| Wolfsburg not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 27% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap 1. FC Nürnberg
- 1. FC Nürnberg goals
- Wolfsburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Karlsruher SC1:0
- 11.09Hannover 962:1
- 05.09away · Holstein Kiel2:2
- 29.08Arminia Bielefeld4:1
- 22.08away · Viktoria Köln 19041:1
- 18.09Darmstadt5:1
- 12.09away · St. Pauli0:1
- 05.09Energie Cottbus4:4
- 29.08away · Karlsruher SC5:2
- 24.08away · VSG Altglienicke3:3
Head to head
- 04.05.2019Wolfsburg — 1. FC Nürnberg2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
Next matches
- Energie Cottbus1. FC Nürnberg16 October · 2. Bundesliga3725382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 2:34.0
- WolfsburgFC Heidenheim17 October · 2. Bundesliga4225341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 4225341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:2.4.0
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 0:1.3.4
- 4026341The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →