2. Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion an der Bremer Brücke
VfL Osnabrück — Dynamo Dresden
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, VfL Osnabrück to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: VfL Osnabrück 40%, Dynamo Dresden 34%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 73%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück — Dynamo Dresden What is xG? | 1.9–1.8 | |
| VfL Osnabrück not to lose | 66% | |
| Dynamo Dresden not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 27% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 71% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 29% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap VfL Osnabrück
- VfL Osnabrück goals
- Dynamo Dresden goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Holstein Kiel1:1
- 13.09Hertha BSC1:3
- 06.09Eintracht Braunschweig3:1
- 02.09Bayern München1:4
- 28.08away · Bochum1:0
- 19.09Hertha BSC1:2
- 12.09away · Eintracht Braunschweig2:2
- 05.09Bochum1:2
- 29.08away · FC Heidenheim3:5
- 23.08away · Westfalia Rhynern6:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
Next matches
- Arminia BielefeldVfL Osnabrück18 October · 2. Bundesliga5623211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
- Dynamo DresdenMagdeburg18 October · 2. Bundesliga3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 4225341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:2.4.0
- 3227412The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 0:1.3.4
- 3627372The most likely outcome did not happen: 24:4Final score 4:4. Model's score: 2:3.3.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →