Segunda Division, round 15 · Monday, 23 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

AD Ceuta FC — Almería

Model prediction for 23 November

AD Ceuta FC24%

Draw25%

Almería51%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Almería are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings Almería are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Almería are 178 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: AD Ceuta FC — No. 22, 5 pts; Almería — No. 2, 26 pts. A gap of 21 pts.
Almería: unbeaten in 5.
Last 2 meetings: AD Ceuta FC 1 win, Almería 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC — Almería What is xG?		1.2–1.8
AD Ceuta FC not to lose		49%
Almería not to lose		76%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC goals
Almería goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	AD Ceuta FC	Almería
Goals scored per match	0.9	2.0
Goals conceded per match	2.0	0.9
xG per match	1.46	1.45
Opponents’ xG	1.68	1.23
Shots	16.8	12.9
On target	4.5	4.6
Corners	6.9	3.5
Cards	3.0	2.2
Possession, %	53	52

Averages per match: AD Ceuta FC — the last 10, Almería — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

AD Ceuta FC

01.11Sporting Gijón0:2
29.10away · Poblense2:1
25.10away · Cádiz1:3
18.10Real Oviedo1:2
10.10Sabadell1:2

Almería

31.10away · Eibar1:1
27.10away · Castellonense2:1
24.10Real Oviedo2:2
17.10away · Real Sociedad B4:2
11.10Leganés3:0

Head to head

01.02.2026Almería — AD Ceuta FC4:2
26.11.2025AD Ceuta FC — Almería3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Promotion	Castellón	12	8	3	1	23–5	+18	27
2, Promotion	Almería	12	8	2	2	23–10	+13	26
3, Promotion play-offs	Eibar	12	7	2	3	21–14	+7	23
21, Relegation	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10–23	-13	7
22, Relegation	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10–27	-17	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →