Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Francisco Zarco
Alacranes de Durango — Tapatío
Model prediction and result
5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Alacranes de Durango to win (43%), came true.
Alacranes de Durango are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Alacranes de Durango are 111 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Alacranes de Durango: unbeaten in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alacranes de Durango — Tapatío What is xG? | 1.3–1.0 | |
| Alacranes de Durango not to lose | 74% | |
| Tapatío not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
Match events
- 2′Luis Gutiérrez · Alacranes de Durango1:0
- 5′Eduardo González · Alacranes de Durango
- 9′Juan Angulo · Alacranes de Durango
- 27′Diego Delgadillo · Tapatío
- 38′José Reyes · Alacranes de Durango2:0
- 68′Juan Angulo · Alacranes de Durango3:0
- 70′Matías Cendejas · Tapatío
- 74′Sebastián Esparza · own goal · Alacranes de Durango4:0
- 89′Andy Garcia · Alacranes de Durango5:0
Substitutions (10)
- 46′Leonardo Jiménez ↔ Juan Uribe · Tapatío
- 46′Sebastián Esparza ↔ Gerson Gutierrez · Tapatío
- 67′Diego Latorre ↔ Diego Delgadillo · Tapatío
- 67′Luis Ledesma ↔ Diego Covarrubias · Tapatío
- 72′Jared Torres ↔ Juan Angulo · Alacranes de Durango
- 78′Tomás Montano ↔ Luis Gutiérrez · Alacranes de Durango
- 78′Jan Ontiveros ↔ Eduardo González · Alacranes de Durango
- 79′Cruz Medina ↔ Daniel Villaseca · Tapatío
- 83′Luis Loroña ↔ Alonso Escoboza · Alacranes de Durango
- 83′Andy Garcia ↔ Cesar Vega · Alacranes de Durango
Form
- 11.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
- 04.10Mineros de Zacatecas4:2
- 27.09away · Dorados1:0
- 18.09Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:0
- 11.09away · Alebrijes Oaxaca0:1
- 14.10Tepatitlán FC4:1
- 10.10Atlético La Paz2:4
- 04.10away · Cancún FC0:1
- 21.09Tlaxcala FC4:0
- 13.09away · Dorados1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →