Segunda Division, round 14 · Monday, 16 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Albacete — Celta Fortuna

Model prediction for 16 November

Albacete54%

Draw25%

Celta Fortuna20%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Albacete are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Albacete are 58 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Albacete — No. 21, 7 pts; Celta Fortuna — No. 16, 13 pts. A gap of 6 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Albacete — Celta Fortuna What is xG?		1.8–1.1
Albacete not to lose		80%
Celta Fortuna not to lose		46%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Albacete
Albacete goals
Celta Fortuna goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Albacete	Celta Fortuna
Goals scored per match	0.8	1.4
Goals conceded per match	1.9	2.1
xG per match	1.01	1.32
Opponents’ xG	1.64	1.53
Shots	11.8	12.8
On target	3.3	4.9
Corners	5.8	3.7
Cards	2.4	2.8
Possession, %	45	51

Averages per match: Albacete — the last 10, Celta Fortuna — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Albacete

31.10Sabadell2:1
25.10Eldense2:0
17.10away · Sporting Gijón1:2
12.10away · Real Valladolid0:5
03.10Eibar1:3

Celta Fortuna

31.10Córdoba2:2
24.10away · Girona1:5
19.10Tenerife1:1
10.10Real Sociedad B4:1
04.10away · Sporting Gijón2:3

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
15	Eldense	12	4	2	6	13–17	-4	14
16	Celta Fortuna	12	3	4	5	18–23	-5	13
17	Leganés	12	3	3	6	10–20	-10	12
20, Relegation	FC Andorra	11	3	1	7	15–20	-5	10
21, Relegation	Albacete	12	2	1	9	10–23	-13	7
22, Relegation	AD Ceuta FC	12	1	2	9	10–27	-17	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →