Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Friday, 23 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca
Alebrijes Oaxaca — Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Model prediction and result
2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Alebrijes Oaxaca 33%, Cruz Azul Hidalgo 36%, draw 31%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruz Azul Hidalgo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alebrijes Oaxaca — Cruz Azul Hidalgo What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Alebrijes Oaxaca not to lose | 64% | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
Match events
- 13′Jesus Bustos · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:0
- 27′Raymundo Rubio · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 32′Jesus Bustos · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 33′Bryan Gamboa · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 46′José Suárez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 68′Sergio de los Ríos · penalty · Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:1
- 89′Kristian Álvarez · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 97′Diego Martinez · Alebrijes Oaxaca2:1
Substitutions (8)
- 46′Josué Díaz ↔ Raymundo Rubio · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 46′Iván Silva ↔ Diego Valdéz · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 46′Fernando Sámano ↔ Ángel Saavedra · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 64′Jesús Lara ↔ Ian Ramírez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 69′Diego Martinez ↔ Adrián Justo · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 73′Christian Valdivia ↔ Kenneth González · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 81′Angel Tecpanecatl ↔ David Ayala · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 87′David Collazo ↔ Bubakarry Fadika · Alebrijes Oaxaca
Form
- 18.10away · Leones Negros2:1
- 09.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
- 04.10away · Piratas0:4
- 25.09Atlético La Paz1:3
- 20.09away · Cancún FC0:3
- 17.10Mineros de Zacatecas2:1
- 11.10away · Dorados3:1
- 03.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:0
- 26.09Leones Negros1:2
- 18.09away · Alacranes de Durango0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →