Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Friday, 30 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca
Alebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Mineros de Zacatecas to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Mineros de Zacatecas are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 30%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mineros de Zacatecas are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Alebrijes Oaxaca: 3 wins in a row; Mineros de Zacatecas: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Alebrijes Oaxaca 1 win, Mineros de Zacatecas 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Alebrijes Oaxaca not to lose | 59% | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Alebrijes Oaxaca
- Alebrijes Oaxaca goals
- Mineros de Zacatecas goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 39′Jesus Bustos · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:0
- 73′Óscar Mazatán · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 82′Randy Ríos · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 86′Israel García · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 86′Salvador Manríquez · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 88′Diego Martinez · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 95′Luís Cervantes · Mineros de Zacatecas
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Angel Tecpanecatl ↔ Adrián Justo · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 59′Luís Cervantes ↔ Luis Hernández · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 59′Juan Machado ↔ Mauro Pérez · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 71′Japheth Jiménez ↔ Adrián Villalobos · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 71′Adrián Vázquez ↔ Bubakarry Fadika · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 76′Alonso García ↔ Kevin Magaña · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 76′Randy Ríos ↔ Pablo Padilla · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 87′Diego Martinez ↔ Israel García · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 89′Luke Jeffus ↔ Andrey Andrade · Alebrijes Oaxaca
Form
- 23.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:1
- 18.10away · Leones Negros2:1
- 09.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
- 04.10away · Piratas0:4
- 25.09Atlético La Paz1:3
- 25.10Leones Negros0:2
- 17.10away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:2
- 11.10Cancún FC2:2
- 04.10away · Alacranes de Durango2:4
- 25.09Piratas3:0
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Alebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas2:0
- 24.08.2025Mineros de Zacatecas — Alebrijes Oaxaca2:2
- 18.01.2025Alebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas0:1
- 03.08.2024Mineros de Zacatecas — Alebrijes Oaxaca3:0
- 29.02.2024Alebrijes Oaxaca — Mineros de Zacatecas1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tlaxcala FC | 15 | 6 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | Alebrijes Oaxaca | 15 | 7 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 15 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →