2. Bundesliga, round 12 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Arminia Bielefeld — Magdeburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Arminia Bielefeld are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arminia Bielefeld are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Arminia Bielefeld — No. 7, 14 pts; Magdeburg — No. 5, 17 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 3 wins, Magdeburg 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld — Magdeburg What is xG? | 1.6–1.4 | |
| Arminia Bielefeld not to lose | 68% | |
| Magdeburg not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Arminia Bielefeld
- Arminia Bielefeld goals
- Magdeburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Arminia Bielefeld | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.34 | 1.41 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.34 | 1.54 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| On target | 3.5 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 54 |
Form
- 30.10Eintracht Braunschweig3:1
- 24.10away · Hertha BSC0:1
- 18.10VfL Osnabrück2:1
- 11.10away · Bochum1:0
- 20.09FC Heidenheim2:2
- 31.10away · Darmstadt1:1
- 28.10away · Bayern München1:6
- 24.10Karlsruher SC6:1
- 18.10away · Dynamo Dresden0:2
- 10.10Hannover 963:0
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Magdeburg — Arminia Bielefeld0:2
- 12.09.2025Arminia Bielefeld — Magdeburg2:0
- 28.05.2023Magdeburg — Arminia Bielefeld4:0
- 13.11.2022Arminia Bielefeld — Magdeburg3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 5 | Magdeburg | 10 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Heidenheim | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- DarmstadtFC Heidenheimpreliminary3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →