Serie B, round 11 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Ascoli — Palermo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Palermo are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palermo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Palermo are 66 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Ascoli — No. 5, 11 pts; Palermo — No. 1, 16 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Palermo: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Ascoli 1 win, Palermo 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ascoli — Palermo What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Ascoli not to lose | 58% | |
| Palermo not to lose | 71% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ascoli
- Ascoli goals
- Palermo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Südtirol0:0
- 19.09Avellino3:1
- 12.09away · Padova0:1
- 05.09Benevento1:0
- 29.08Carrarese1:1
Head to head
- 05.05.2024Palermo — Ascoli2:2
- 16.09.2023Ascoli — Palermo0:1
- 29.01.2023Ascoli — Palermo1:2
- 27.08.2022Palermo — Ascoli2:3
Table
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →