Peruvian Liga 1 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Sporting Cristal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Sporting Cristal are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Cristal are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Sporting Cristal are 94 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Asociación Deportiva Tarma 2 wins, Sporting Cristal 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Sporting Cristal What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Asociación Deportiva Tarma not to lose | 59% | |
| Sporting Cristal not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Asociación Deportiva Tarma
- Asociación Deportiva Tarma goals
- Sporting Cristal goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Asociación Deportiva Tarma | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 15.5 | 14.4 |
| On target | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 6.0 |
| Cards | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 53 |
Form
- 03.11away · Comerciantes Unidos2:2
- 28.10Deportivo Moquegua2:0
- 23.10away · Atlético Grau1:1
- 16.10away · Los Chankas1:2
- 10.10FC Cajamarca0:0
- 02.11FC Cajamarca5:0
- 29.10Alianza Lima3:2
- 24.10away · Cusco FC1:3
- 18.10Comerciantes Unidos4:2
- 11.10away · UTC Cajamarca1:0
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Sporting Cristal — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:1
- 04.10.2025Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Sporting Cristal3:2
- 17.05.2025Sporting Cristal — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:1
- 12.07.2024Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Sporting Cristal3:1
- 27.01.2024Sporting Cristal — Asociación Deportiva Tarma6:2
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →