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Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Guaycura

Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC

Model prediction and result

2:2Missed
Atlético La Paz66%
Draw20%
Tlaxcala FC14%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético La Paz to win (66%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 66% fails in about 34 matches out of 100 on average.

Atlético La Paz are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlético La Paz are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Atlético La Paz are 184 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Atlético La Paz 3 wins, Tlaxcala FC 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC What is xG?2.4–1.1
Atlético La Paz not to lose86%
Tlaxcala FC not to lose34%
No draw80%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

Match events

  1. 7′Miguel Ramírez · Tlaxcala FC
  2. 16′Daniel Álvarez · Tlaxcala FC0:1
  3. 29′Fernando Illescas · Atlético La Paz
  4. 31′Ángel Robles · Atlético La Paz1:1
  5. 35′Carlos Robles · Atlético La Paz
  6. 37′Erick Robles · Tlaxcala FC
  7. 39′Erick Robles · Tlaxcala FC1:2
  8. 53′Martín Barragán · penalty · Atlético La Paz2:2
  9. 55′Julian Freyfeld · Tlaxcala FC
  10. 79′Mario Trejo · Tlaxcala FC
  11. 82′Jesús Hernández · Tlaxcala FC
  12. 96′Alan Torres · Atlético La Paz
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Óscar Millán ↔ Ulíses Jaimes · Atlético La Paz
  2. 46′Jordi Ferrer ↔ Ulises Zurita · Atlético La Paz
  3. 57′Israel Larios ↔ Marco García · Atlético La Paz
  4. 61′Cristian González ↔ Miguel Ramírez · Tlaxcala FC
  5. 61′Christian ↔ Giovani Hernández · Tlaxcala FC
  6. 73′Raúl Camacho ↔ Daniel Álvarez · Tlaxcala FC
  7. 77′Fernando Plascencia ↔ Ismael Govea · Tlaxcala FC
  8. 77′Jesús Hernández ↔ Andrés Iniestra · Tlaxcala FC
  9. 91′Ricardo Rentería ↔ Martín Barragán · Atlético La Paz
  10. 98′Horacio Torres ↔ Ángel Robles · Atlético La Paz

Form

Atlético La Paz

  • 10.10away · Tapatío4:2
  • 03.10Venados FC1:2
  • 25.09away · Alebrijes Oaxaca3:1
  • 19.09Correcaminos de la UAT3:1
  • 13.09away · Leones Negros2:2

Tlaxcala FC

  • 11.10Piratas4:2
  • 04.10away · Atlético Morelia1:1
  • 27.09Cancún FC4:1
  • 21.09away · Tapatío0:4
  • 13.09Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC2:0
  • 28.09.2025Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz3:3
  • 11.01.2025Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC4:4
  • 28.07.2024Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz0:2
  • 17.02.2024Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz2:3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →