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Copa do Brasil (Brazilian Cup), playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Atlético-MG — Grêmio

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Model prediction for 8 November

Atlético-MG48%
Draw26%
Grêmio27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Atlético-MG are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlético-MG are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Atlético-MG are 112 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Atlético-MG: 4 defeats in a row; Grêmio: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Atlético-MG 1 win, Grêmio 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético-MG — Grêmio What is xG?1.6–1.2
Atlético-MG not to lose73%
Grêmio not to lose52%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Atlético-MG
  • Atlético-MG goals
  • Grêmio goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAtlético-MGGrêmio
Goals scored per match1.21.2
Goals conceded per match1.21.2
xG per match1.011.22
Opponents’ xG1.231.28
Shots15.413.4
On target5.84.3
Corners6.84.7
Cards1.72.8
Possession, %5245

Averages per match: Atlético-MG — the last 10, Grêmio — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Atlético-MG

  • 02.11away · Grêmio0:2
  • 30.10Cruzeiro0:1
  • 27.10away · Flamengo2:3
  • 22.10away · Montevideo City Torque0:2
  • 18.10Coritiba1:0

Grêmio

  • 02.11Atlético-MG2:0
  • 30.10Athletico Paranaense2:0
  • 27.10away · Coritiba1:0
  • 18.10Cruzeiro2:4
  • 11.10Internacional1:1

Head to head

  • 02.11.2026Grêmio — Atlético-MG2:0
  • 16.08.2026Atlético-MG — Grêmio3:0
  • 26.02.2026Grêmio — Atlético-MG2:1
  • 17.08.2025Atlético-MG — Grêmio1:3
  • 30.03.2025Grêmio — Atlético-MG2:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Copa do Brasil on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →