Copa do Brasil (Brazilian Cup), playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Vasco da Gama — Palmeiras
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Palmeiras are clear favourites: 48% against 26% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Palmeiras are 91 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Vasco da Gama 1 win, Palmeiras 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vasco da Gama — Palmeiras What is xG? | 1.2–1.6 | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 52% | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Palmeiras goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vasco da Gama | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| xG per match | 1.01 | 1.59 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 17.2 |
| On target | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 48 |
Form
- 01.11away · Palmeiras0:1
- 30.10Flamengo1:4
- 25.10Corinthians3:2
- 21.10Boca Juniors1:3
- 18.10away · São Paulo0:1
- 01.11Vasco da Gama1:0
- 29.10away · Santos0:0
- 25.10RB Bragantino2:0
- 22.10Fluminense0:1
- 18.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:0
Head to head
- 01.11.2026Palmeiras — Vasco da Gama1:0
- 23.08.2026Palmeiras — Vasco da Gama4:1
- 13.03.2026Vasco da Gama — Palmeiras2:1
- 02.10.2025Palmeiras — Vasco da Gama3:0
- 04.05.2025Vasco da Gama — Palmeiras0:1
Copa do Brasil on the same day
- 4826271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →