Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)
Atlético-MG/Grêmio — Palmeiras/Vasco da Gama
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 11 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético-MG/Grêmio are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Atlético-MG/Grêmio are 80 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG/Grêmio — Palmeiras/Vasco da Gama What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Atlético-MG/Grêmio not to lose | 75% | |
| Palmeiras/Vasco da Gama not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético-MG/Grêmio
- Atlético-MG/Grêmio goals
- Palmeiras/Vasco da Gama goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Form
No past matches in the data yet.
No past matches in the data yet.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|
Liga de Expansion MX on the same day
- Atlético-MG/GrêmioPalmeiras/Vasco da Gamapreliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →