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Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Atlético Morelia — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Atlético Morelia54%
Draw28%
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético Morelia to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Atlético Morelia are clear favourites: 54% against 17% for the opponent, draw 28%.

The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 43%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Atlético Morelia are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Atlético Morelia are 162 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero: winless in 5.
  • Last 4 meetings: Atlético Morelia 1 win, Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Atlético Morelia — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero What is xG?1.5–0.7
Atlético Morelia not to lose83%
Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero not to lose46%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes43%
Both teams to score: no57%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

Match events

  1. 10′Ian Ramírez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  2. 32′Alonso Flores · missed penalty · Atlético Morelia
  3. 40′Diego Aguilar · Atlético Morelia
  4. 44′Jose Van Rankin · Atlético Morelia1:0
  5. 45′Óscar Manzanárez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  6. 68′Alonso Flores · Atlético Morelia
  7. 73′Jesús López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:1
  8. 79′Édson Torres · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  9. 83′Jonathan Martínez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Alberto Ríos ↔ Ian Ramírez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  2. 62′Rodolfo Gonzalez ↔ Óscar Manzanárez · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  3. 62′Jesús López ↔ Jonathan Tovar · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  4. 73′Edson Castellanos ↔ Orlando Botello · Atlético Morelia
  5. 73′Robert Castellanos ↔ Michell Rodríguez · Atlético Morelia
  6. 80′Jonathan Martínez ↔ Cristian Cruz · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero
  7. 80′Ander Izarra ↔ Diego Aguilar · Atlético Morelia
  8. 86′Víctor López ↔ Jaziel Martínez · Atlético Morelia
  9. 86′Garcia ↔ Mauro Nambo · Atlético Morelia
  10. 93′André Ham ↔ Daniel López · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

Form

Atlético Morelia

  • 10.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:1
  • 04.10Tlaxcala FC1:1
  • 27.09away · Venados FC1:2
  • 20.09Leones Negros2:0
  • 13.09away · Mineros de Zacatecas1:0

Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero

  • 11.10Alacranes de Durango0:0
  • 03.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:3
  • 26.09away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:1
  • 20.09Dorados1:1
  • 13.09away · Tlaxcala FC1:3

Head to head

  • 20.04.2026Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético Morelia1:0
  • 09.11.2025Atlético Morelia — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
  • 12.01.2025Atlético Morelia — Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:0
  • 28.07.2024Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero — Atlético Morelia1:1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →