Bundesliga, round 10 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Augsburg — Mainz 05
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Augsburg 32%, Mainz 05 37%, draw 31%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Mainz 05 are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Augsburg are 88 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Augsburg — No. 10, 9 pts; Mainz 05 — No. 9, 10 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Mainz 05: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 0 wins, Mainz 05 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Augsburg — Mainz 05 What is xG? | 1.6–1.7 | |
| Augsburg not to lose | 63% | |
| Mainz 05 not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Augsburg
- Augsburg goals
- Mainz 05 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Augsburg | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.90 | 2.04 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.27 | 1.39 |
| Shots | 17.6 | 17.3 |
| On target | 6.8 | 6.3 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 6.1 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 53 |
Form
- 31.10Freiburg1:2
- 27.10away · Sonnenhof Großaspach4:2
- 24.10Union Berlin1:1
- 17.10away · Elversberg3:4
- 10.10Bayern München2:2
- 30.10away · Elversberg1:4
- 27.10away · Bochum0:2
- 24.10Werder Bremen2:3
- 17.10away · Schalke 041:0
- 10.10Bayer Leverkusen3:4
Head to head
- 07.02.2026Mainz 05 — Augsburg2:0
- 20.09.2025Augsburg — Mainz 051:4
- 08.02.2025Mainz 05 — Augsburg0:0
- 20.09.2024Augsburg — Mainz 052:3
- 17.02.2024Mainz 05 — Augsburg1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- Werder BremenHamburger SVpreliminary5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →