PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Bundesliga, round 10 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Werder Bremen — Hamburger SV

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 22 November

Werder Bremen58%
Draw25%
Hamburger SV17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Werder Bremen are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Werder Bremen are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Werder Bremen are 151 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Werder Bremen — No. 5, 15 pts; Hamburger SV — No. 15, 9 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Hamburger SV: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 4 meetings: Werder Bremen 2 wins, Hamburger SV 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Werder Bremen — Hamburger SV What is xG?2.0–1.1
Werder Bremen not to lose83%
Hamburger SV not to lose42%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.562%
Total under 2.538%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Werder Bremen
  • Werder Bremen goals
  • Hamburger SV goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatWerder BremenHamburger SV
Goals scored per match2.21.1
Goals conceded per match1.72.2
xG per match1.731.17
Opponents’ xG1.431.62
Shots15.511.2
On target6.73.8
Corners4.93.8
Cards1.41.6
Possession, %4941

Averages per match: Werder Bremen — the last 10, Hamburger SV — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Werder Bremen

  • 31.10Hoffenheim2:0
  • 27.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:3
  • 24.10away · Mainz 053:2
  • 17.10Paderborn2:2
  • 09.10away · Borussia Dortmund2:2

Hamburger SV

  • 01.11away · Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • 27.10Eintracht Frankfurt1:3
  • 24.10away · Paderborn0:1
  • 17.10VfB Stuttgart1:0
  • 10.10away · Hoffenheim3:2

Head to head

  • 18.04.2026Werder Bremen — Hamburger SV3:1
  • 07.12.2025Hamburger SV — Werder Bremen3:2
  • 27.02.2022Hamburger SV — Werder Bremen2:3
  • 18.09.2021Werder Bremen — Hamburger SV0:2

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Champions LeagueRB Leipzig850322–11+1115
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueWerder Bremen843117–14+315
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueBayer Leverkusen841318–16+213
14Paderborn82336–9-39
15Hamburger SV83057–19-129
16, Relegation play-offUnion Berlin81437–19-127

Season 2026/27

Full table

Bundesliga on the same day

  • AugsburgMainz 05preliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →