Austrian Bundesliga, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Austria Lustenau — Grazer AK
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In short
Grazer AK are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Grazer AK are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Austria Lustenau — No. 10, 8 pts; Grazer AK — No. 9, 10 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Austria Lustenau: 4 defeats in a row; Grazer AK: winless in 5.
- Days of rest before the match: Austria Lustenau 6, Grazer AK 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Austria Lustenau — Grazer AK What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Austria Lustenau not to lose | 60% | |
| Grazer AK not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Austria Lustenau | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| xG per match | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.52 | 1.80 |
| Shots | 12.4 | 14.9 |
| On target | 3.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 47 |
Form
- 01.11away · Salzburg1:5
- 24.10away · Rapid Wien1:5
- 17.10LASK0:4
- 11.10away · Hartberg3:4
- 19.09Altach2:0
- 30.10Hartberg0:4
- 24.10away · WSG Tirol1:1
- 18.10away · Sturm Graz1:6
- 10.10Salzburg0:0
- 19.09Austria Wien2:2
Head to head
- 08.08.2026Grazer AK — Austria Lustenau2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Relegation round | Altach | 11 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 9, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 11 | 2 | -19 | 10 |
| 10, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 11 | 2 | -16 | 8 |
| 11, Relegation round | Austria Wien | 11 | 2 | -12 | 7 |
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- 2427492The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →