Austrian Bundesliga, round 12 · Saturday, 7 November, 21:30 (UTC+3)

Ried — LASK

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Model prediction for 7 November

Ried24%

Draw27%

LASK49%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

LASK are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.

Why

By the strength ratings LASK are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
LASK are 55 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Ried — No. 6, 16 pts; LASK — No. 3, 22 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Ried: unbeaten in 5.
Last 3 meetings: Ried 1 win, LASK 1, 1 draw.
Days of rest before the match: Ried 7, LASK 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ried — LASK What is xG?		1.4–1.9
Ried not to lose		51%
LASK not to lose		76%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		66%
Both teams to score: no		34%
Total over 2.5		63%
Total under 2.5		37%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Ried
Ried goals
LASK goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Ried	LASK
Goals scored per match	1.8	2.1
Goals conceded per match	1.7	2.0
xG per match	1.71	1.95
Opponents’ xG	1.78	1.87
Shots	13.0	17.1
On target	4.9	5.3
Corners	3.5	5.6
Cards	2.3	1.8
Possession, %	46	52

Averages per match: Ried — the last 10, LASK — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Ried

31.10away · Altach1:1
25.10away · Sturm Graz2:2
17.10Austria Wien3:2
10.10away · WSG Tirol2:1
20.09Wolfsberger AC4:1

LASK

03.11Slovan Bratislava4:0
31.10WSG Tirol2:1
25.10Salzburg1:3
21.10away · Sporting CP3:2
17.10away · Austria Lustenau4:0

Head to head

14.08.2026LASK — Ried4:1
14.02.2026Ried — LASK1:1
30.08.2025LASK — Ried1:3

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Championship round	Salzburg	11	8	3	0	29–6	+23	27
3, Championship round	LASK	11	7	1	3	26–13	+13	22
4, Championship round	Sturm Graz	11	5	4	2	19–13	+6	19
5, Championship round	Hartberg	11	5	2	4	20–19	+1	17
6, Championship round	Ried	11	4	4	3	19–18	+1	16
7, Relegation round	WSG Tirol	11	3	3	5	14–17	-3	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

Austrian Bundesliga on the same day

19:00
Austria LustenauGrazer AK
303040
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →