Ligue 1, round 10 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Auxerre — Paris FC
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In short
Paris FC are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Paris FC higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Auxerre — No. 14, 10 pts; Paris FC — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Auxerre 2 wins, Paris FC 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Auxerre — Paris FC What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Auxerre not to lose | 46% | |
| Paris FC not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Auxerre
- Auxerre goals
- Paris FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Auxerre | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.31 | 1.78 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.00 | 0.91 |
| Shots | 11.1 | 14.1 |
| On target | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 3.4 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Strasbourg1:5
- 25.10Le Mans1:1
- 18.10away · Le Havre3:1
- 11.10away · Rennes1:4
- 20.09Brest2:1
Head to head
- 08.02.2026Auxerre — Paris FC0:0
- 29.11.2025Paris FC — Auxerre1:1
- 04.05.2024Auxerre — Paris FC2:0
- 07.10.2023Paris FC — Auxerre0:2
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- 90731The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →