Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Saturday, 21 November, 23:30 (UTC+3)

Bahia — Coritiba

Model prediction for 21 November

Bahia67%

Draw20%

Coritiba13%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bahia are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

By the strength ratings Bahia are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Bahia are 213 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Bahia — No. 6, 53 pts; Coritiba — No. 11, 42 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Bahia 4 wins, Coritiba 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bahia — Coritiba What is xG?		2.2–0.9
Bahia not to lose		87%
Coritiba not to lose		33%
No draw		80%
Both teams to score: yes		53%
Both teams to score: no		47%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Bahia
Bahia goals
Coritiba goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Bahia	Coritiba
Goals scored per match	1.6	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.4	2.0
xG per match	2.00	1.33
Opponents’ xG	1.57	1.86
Shots	14.2	12.7
On target	4.3	3.7
Corners	5.6	4.8
Cards	2.6	2.3
Possession, %	51	43

Averages per match: Bahia — the last 10, Coritiba — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Bahia

29.10São Paulo3:2
25.10away · Santos1:1
19.10Flamengo0:3
12.10Mirassol1:0
09.10away · Palmeiras0:1

Coritiba

04.11away · Internacional0:1
31.10Vitória2:0
27.10Grêmio0:1
18.10away · Atlético-MG0:1
12.10Botafogo1:1

Head to head

26.05.2026Coritiba — Bahia3:2
15.09.2023Coritiba — Bahia2:4
07.05.2023Bahia — Coritiba3:1
17.11.2020Coritiba — Bahia1:2
13.08.2020Bahia — Coritiba1:0

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Copa Libertadores	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50–40	+10	54
6, Copa Sudamericana	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48–42	+6	53
7, Copa Sudamericana	Atlético-MG	33	14	8	11	44–39	+5	50
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

22:30
PalmeirasFlamengopreliminary
403031
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →