Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Saturday, 21 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Palmeiras — Flamengo

Model prediction for 21 November

Palmeiras40%

Draw30%

Flamengo31%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Palmeiras are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 30%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

League table: Palmeiras — No. 2, 70 pts; Flamengo — No. 1, 73 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Flamengo: unbeaten in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Palmeiras 1 win, Flamengo 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Palmeiras — Flamengo What is xG?		1.4–1.2
Palmeiras not to lose		69%
Flamengo not to lose		60%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		49%
Total under 2.5		51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Palmeiras
Palmeiras goals
Flamengo goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Palmeiras	Flamengo
Goals scored per match	1.4	1.8
Goals conceded per match	0.6	0.8
xG per match	1.59	1.80
Opponents’ xG	0.72	1.08
Shots	17.2	16.3
On target	5.8	6.4
Corners	5.2	7.8
Cards	2.6	2.9
Possession, %	48	59

Averages per match: Palmeiras — the last 10, Flamengo — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Palmeiras

01.11Vasco da Gama1:0
29.10away · Santos0:0
25.10RB Bragantino2:0
22.10Fluminense0:1
18.10away · Athletico Paranaense2:0

Flamengo

30.10away · Vasco da Gama4:1
27.10Atlético-MG3:2
23.10Estudiantes0:0
19.10away · Bahia3:0
16.10away · Estudiantes0:0

Head to head

24.05.2026Flamengo — Palmeiras0:3
30.11.2025Palmeiras — Flamengo0:1
19.10.2025Flamengo — Palmeiras3:2
25.05.2025Palmeiras — Flamengo0:2
11.08.2024Flamengo — Palmeiras1:1

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Copa Libertadores	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	68–28	+40	73
2, Copa Libertadores	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56–22	+34	70
3, Copa Libertadores	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52–46	+6	57

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

23:30
BahiaCoritibapreliminary
672013
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →