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EFL Championship, round 16 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Burnley — Blackburn Rovers

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Model prediction for 22 November

Burnley55%
Draw26%
Blackburn Rovers20%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Burnley are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Burnley are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Burnley are 152 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Burnley — No. 22, 10 pts; Blackburn Rovers — No. 14, 18 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Burnley: winless in 5.
  • Last 4 meetings: Burnley 3 wins, Blackburn Rovers 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Burnley — Blackburn Rovers What is xG?1.6–1.0
Burnley not to lose80%
Blackburn Rovers not to lose45%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Burnley
  • Burnley goals
  • Blackburn Rovers goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatBurnleyBlackburn Rovers
Goals scored per match1.31.5
Goals conceded per match1.61.7
xG per match1.211.08
Opponents’ xG1.521.76
Shots13.112.4
On target3.94.0
Corners4.26.6
Cards1.92.0
Possession, %4849

Averages per match: Burnley — the last 10, Blackburn Rovers — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Burnley

  • 03.11away · Queens Park Rangers1:1
  • 31.10Portsmouth0:0
  • 24.10away · Lincoln City1:4
  • 16.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:2
  • 13.10Charlton Athletic2:2

Blackburn Rovers

  • 03.11Stoke City1:2
  • 31.10away · Swansea City0:4
  • 24.10Wrexham2:0
  • 17.10away · West Bromwich Albion2:3
  • 13.10away · Bristol City1:0

Head to head

  • 04.01.2025Blackburn Rovers — Burnley0:1
  • 31.08.2024Burnley — Blackburn Rovers1:1
  • 25.04.2023Blackburn Rovers — Burnley0:1
  • 13.11.2022Burnley — Blackburn Rovers3:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
13Millwall1453623–24-118
14Blackburn Rovers1453620–22-218
15Bristol City1353515–17-218
21Charlton Athletic1435611–22-1114
22, RelegationBurnley1417618–26-810
23, RelegationDerby County1414911–29-187

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →