Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo
Cancún FC — Venados FC
Model prediction and result
1:1Missed
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cancún FC to win (60%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 60% fails in about 40 matches out of 100 on average.
Cancún FC are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cancún FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Cancún FC are 99 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Cancún FC 1 win, Venados FC 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cancún FC — Venados FC What is xG? | 2.2–1.2 | |
| Cancún FC not to lose | 82% | |
| Venados FC not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
Match events
- 6′Khaled Amador · Venados FC
- 34′Jair Cortés · Cancún FC1:0
- 34′Idekel Domínguez · Venados FC
- 42′Santiago Montiel · Venados FC
- 71′Armando Chávez · Cancún FC
- 80′Armando Chávez · Cancún FC
- 85′Christopher Trejo · Cancún FC
- 87′Edson Arce · Cancún FC
- 92′Sleyther Lora · Venados FC1:1
Substitutions (9)
- 40′Adolfo Domínguez ↔ Khaled Amador · Venados FC
- 46′Damián Lomelí ↔ Francisco Uscanga · Cancún FC
- 60′Máximo Torres ↔ Mauricio Aguilar · Venados FC
- 69′Francisco Melendre ↔ Jair Cortés · Cancún FC
- 69′Gipson Preciado ↔ Karel Campos · Cancún FC
- 79′Erick Torres ↔ Santiago Montiel · Venados FC
- 79′Jardel Canto ↔ Duilio Tejeda · Venados FC
- 90′Thiago Gigena ↔ José Rodríguez · Cancún FC
- 90′Christo Vela ↔ Luis Bustillos · Cancún FC
Form
- 11.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:2
- 04.10Tapatío1:0
- 27.09away · Tlaxcala FC1:4
- 20.09Alebrijes Oaxaca3:0
- 16.09away · Dorados1:1
- 11.10Leones Negros1:1
- 03.10away · Atlético La Paz2:1
- 27.09Atlético Morelia2:1
- 19.09away · Piratas1:2
- 13.09Tepatitlán FC5:0
Head to head
- 11.02.2026Venados FC — Cancún FC2:0
- 14.09.2025Cancún FC — Venados FC1:0
- 16.02.2025Cancún FC — Venados FC1:2
- 01.09.2024Venados FC — Cancún FC4:0
- 04.04.2024Venados FC — Cancún FC2:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →