Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Sunday, 22 November, 03:00 (UTC+3)

Chapecoense — Cruzeiro

Model prediction for 22 November

Chapecoense13%

Draw21%

Cruzeiro66%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Cruzeiro are clear favourites: 66% against 13% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings Cruzeiro are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Cruzeiro are 260 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Chapecoense — No. 20, 21 pts; Cruzeiro — No. 3, 57 pts. A gap of 36 pts.
Cruzeiro: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Chapecoense 1 win, Cruzeiro 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chapecoense — Cruzeiro What is xG?		0.9–2.1
Chapecoense not to lose		34%
Cruzeiro not to lose		87%
No draw		79%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Chapecoense
Chapecoense goals
Cruzeiro goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Chapecoense	Cruzeiro
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.9
Goals conceded per match	2.2	1.5
xG per match	0.98	1.69
Opponents’ xG	1.83	1.52
Shots	12.6	15.1
On target	3.8	6.3
Corners	4.2	4.8
Cards	2.6	2.7
Possession, %	44	53

Averages per match: Chapecoense — the last 10, Cruzeiro — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Chapecoense

04.11Mirassol1:2
29.10away · RB Bragantino0:3
25.10Fluminense2:1
18.10away · Botafogo0:1
13.10Athletico Paranaense1:4

Cruzeiro

30.10away · Atlético-MG1:0
24.10Remo1:0
18.10away · Grêmio4:2
13.10away · RB Bragantino2:4
08.10São Paulo2:0

Head to head

06.08.2026Cruzeiro — Chapecoense2:0
03.08.2026Chapecoense — Cruzeiro0:0
24.05.2026Cruzeiro — Chapecoense2:1
14.10.2019Chapecoense — Cruzeiro1:1
27.05.2019Cruzeiro — Chapecoense1:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Copa Libertadores	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56–22	+34	70
3, Copa Libertadores	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52–46	+6	57
4, Copa Libertadores	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52–42	+10	54
19, Relegation	Remo	33	6	11	16	36–51	-15	29
20, Relegation	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33–68	-35	21

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

22:00
Athletico ParanaenseRemopreliminary
662112
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →