Brazilian Serie A, round 21 · Sunday, 15 November, 02:30 (UTC+3)

Chapecoense — Vasco da Gama

Model prediction for 15 November

Chapecoense15%

Draw24%

Vasco da Gama62%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Vasco da Gama are clear favourites: 62% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings Vasco da Gama are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Vasco da Gama are 104 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Chapecoense — No. 20, 21 pts; Vasco da Gama — No. 15, 38 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
Last 3 meetings: Chapecoense 0 wins, Vasco da Gama 1, 2 draws.
Days of rest before the match: Chapecoense 11, Vasco da Gama 14.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Chapecoense — Vasco da Gama What is xG?		1.0–1.9
Chapecoense not to lose		38%
Vasco da Gama not to lose		85%
No draw		76%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Chapecoense
Chapecoense goals
Vasco da Gama goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Chapecoense	Vasco da Gama
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded per match	2.2	1.2
xG per match	0.98	1.01
Opponents’ xG	1.83	0.46
Shots	12.6	15.7
On target	3.8	4.5
Corners	4.2	5.7
Cards	2.6	1.4
Possession, %	44	56

Averages per match: Chapecoense — the last 10, Vasco da Gama — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Chapecoense

04.11Mirassol1:2
29.10away · RB Bragantino0:3
25.10Fluminense2:1
18.10away · Botafogo0:1
13.10Athletico Paranaense1:4

Vasco da Gama

01.11away · Palmeiras0:1
30.10Flamengo1:4
25.10Corinthians3:2
21.10Boca Juniors1:3
18.10away · São Paulo0:1

Head to head

06.02.2026Vasco da Gama — Chapecoense1:1
08.12.2019Vasco da Gama — Chapecoense1:1
15.09.2019Chapecoense — Vasco da Gama1:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38–42	-4	38
15	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40–49	-9	38
16	Vitória	33	10	8	15	35–48	-13	38
19, Relegation	Remo	33	6	11	16	36–51	-15	29
20, Relegation	Chapecoense	33	4	9	20	33–68	-35	21

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

00:30
MirassolAtlético-MGpreliminary
502723
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →