Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Sunday, 15 November, 00:30 (UTC+3)

Mirassol — Atlético-MG

Model prediction for 15 November

Mirassol50%

Draw27%

Atlético-MG23%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Mirassol are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Mirassol higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Mirassol — No. 12, 40 pts; Atlético-MG — No. 7, 50 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Atlético-MG: 4 defeats in a row.
Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 0 wins, Atlético-MG 2, 1 draw.
Days of rest before the match: Mirassol 11, Atlético-MG 13.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mirassol — Atlético-MG What is xG?		1.7–1.2
Mirassol not to lose		77%
Atlético-MG not to lose		50%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Mirassol
Mirassol goals
Atlético-MG goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Mirassol	Atlético-MG
Goals scored per match	1.2	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.1	1.2
xG per match	1.52	1.01
Opponents’ xG	1.75	1.23
Shots	14.3	15.4
On target	4.1	5.8
Corners	5.3	6.8
Cards	2.5	1.7
Possession, %	50	52

Averages per match: Mirassol — the last 10, Atlético-MG — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Mirassol

04.11away · Chapecoense2:1
31.10away · Corinthians0:2
24.10São Paulo1:1
17.10Internacional2:0
12.10away · Bahia0:1

Atlético-MG

02.11away · Grêmio0:2
30.10Cruzeiro0:1
27.10away · Flamengo2:3
22.10away · Montevideo City Torque0:2
18.10Coritiba1:0

Head to head

17.05.2026Atlético-MG — Mirassol3:1
28.09.2025Atlético-MG — Mirassol1:0
27.04.2025Mirassol — Atlético-MG2:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Copa Sudamericana	Bahia	33	14	11	8	48–42	+6	53
7, Copa Sudamericana	Atlético-MG	33	14	8	11	44–39	+5	50
8, Copa Sudamericana	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44–39	+5	47
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45–53	-8	39

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

02:30
ChapecoenseVasco da Gamapreliminary
152462
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →